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How accurate were the pollsters?
2004 US Presidential election -
the tossup states
Pollsters' data from October 29 -
November 1, 2004
Following table shows pollsters'
accuracy by tossup state
B= G.W.Bush K= John
Kerry Numbers are in % over 50%
|
Pollster
|
State
|
Voters
said
|
Called
|
Right/Wrong
|
Bias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
American
Research Group
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
K+2
|
Wrong
|
K+7.1
|
|
Zogby
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
Tie
|
Wrong
|
K+5.1
|
|
FOX
News
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
K+5
|
Wrong
|
K+10.1
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+1
|
Right
|
K+4.1
|
|
Quinnipiac
Universify
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+8
|
Right
|
B+2.9
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+8.1
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+3
|
Right
|
K+2.1
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+4
|
Right
|
K+1.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
50%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+6
|
Right
|
B+3.5
|
|
FOX
News
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+3
|
Right
|
B+0.5
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+2
|
Right
|
K+0.5
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
K+4
|
Wrong
|
K+6.5
|
|
Ohio
Poll/UofC
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+0.9
|
Right
|
K+1.6
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+2
|
Right
|
K+0.5
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+4
|
Right
|
B+1.5
|
|
Clev.
Plain Dealer
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+3
|
Right
|
B+0.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.5%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+1
|
Right
|
B+1.2
|
|
Zogby
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+4
|
Right
|
K+1.8
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
B+4
|
Wrong
|
B+6.2
|
|
Quinnipiac
Universify
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
Tie
|
Wrong
|
B+2.2
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+2
|
Right
|
B+0.2
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+2
|
Right
|
B+0.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
33%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+5.5
|
|
FOX
News
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
B+3
|
Wrong
|
B+3.5
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
B+8
|
Wrong
|
B+8.5
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
K+2
|
Right
|
K+1.5
|
|
American
Research Group
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
K+1
|
Right
|
K+0.5
|
|
Badger
Poll
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
B+3
|
Wrong
|
B+3.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
50%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+3.9
|
|
Zogby
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
K+5
|
Wrong
|
K+5.9
|
|
FOX
News
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+4
|
Right
|
B+3.1
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+2
|
Right
|
B+1.1
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+5
|
Right
|
B+4.1
|
|
DM
Register
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+3.9
|
|
Research
2000
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+1
|
Right
|
B+0.1
|
|
American
Research Group
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+1
|
Right
|
B+0.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
37.5%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+2.4
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
K+8
|
|