|
How accurate were the pollsters?
2004 US Presidential election -
the tossup states
Pollsters' data from October 29 -
November 1, 2004
Following table shows pollsters'
accuracy by tossup state
B= G.W.Bush K= John
Kerry Numbers are in % over 50%
|
Pollster
|
State
|
Voters
said
|
Called
|
Right/Wrong
|
Bias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
American Research Group
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
K+2
|
Wrong
|
K+7.1
|
|
Zogby
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
Tie
|
Wrong
|
K+5.1
|
|
FOX
News
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
K+5
|
Wrong
|
K+10.1
|
|
Survey USA
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+1
|
Right
|
K+4.1
|
|
Quinnipiac Universify
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+8
|
Right
|
B+2.9
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+8.1
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+3
|
Right
|
K+2.1
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Florida
|
B+5.1
|
B+4
|
Right
|
K+1.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
50%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+6
|
Right
|
B+3.5
|
|
FOX News
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+3
|
Right
|
B+0.5
|
|
Survey USA
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+2
|
Right
|
K+0.5
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
K+4
|
Wrong
|
K+6.5
|
|
Ohio Poll/UofC
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+0.9
|
Right
|
K+1.6
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+2
|
Right
|
K+0.5
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+4
|
Right
|
B+1.5
|
|
Clev. Plain Dealer
|
Ohio
|
B+2.5
|
B+3
|
Right
|
B+0.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.5% WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey USA
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+1
|
Right
|
B+1.2
|
|
Zogby
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+4
|
Right
|
K+1.8
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
B+4
|
Wrong
|
B+6.2
|
|
Quinnipiac Universify
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
Tie
|
Wrong
|
B+2.2
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+2
|
Right
|
B+0.2
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Pennsylvania
|
K+2.2
|
K+2
|
Right
|
B+0.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
33%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+5.5
|
|
FOX News
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
B+3
|
Wrong
|
B+3.5
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
B+8
|
Wrong
|
B+8.5
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
K+2
|
Right
|
K+1.5
|
|
American Research Group
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
K+1
|
Right
|
K+0.5
|
|
Badger Poll
|
Wisconsin
|
K+0.5
|
B+3
|
Wrong
|
B+3.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
50%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey USA
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+3.9
|
|
Zogby
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
K+5
|
Wrong
|
K+5.9
|
|
FOX News
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+4
|
Right
|
B+3.1
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+2
|
Right
|
B+1.1
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+5
|
Right
|
B+4.1
|
|
DM Register
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+3.9
|
|
Research 2000
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+1
|
Right
|
B+0.1
|
|
American Research Group
|
Iowa
|
B+0.9
|
B+1
|
Right
|
B+0.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
37.5% WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+2.4
|
|
CNN/USAT/Gallop
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
K+8
|
Right
|
K+4.4
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
K+1
|
Right
|
B+2.6
|
|
Mason-Dixon/PP
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
B+1
|
Wrong
|
B+4.6
|
|
Star-Tribune
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
K+8
|
Right
|
K+4.4
|
|
Humphrey Inst
|
Minnesota
|
K+3.6
|
B+3
|
Wrong
|
B+6.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
33%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
New
Mexico
|
B+1.7
|
K+3
|
Wrong
|
K+4.7
|
|
American Research Group
|
New
Mexico
|
B+1.7
|
K+1
|
Wrong
|
K+2.7
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
New
Mexico
|
B+1.7
|
B+4
|
Right
|
B+2.3
|
|
Albuquerque Journal
|
New Mexico
|
B+1.7
|
B+3
|
Right
|
B+1.3
|
|
Rasmussen
|
New
Mexico
|
B+1.7
|
B+4
|
Right
|
B+2.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
40%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
American Research Group
|
New
Hampshire
|
K+1.4
|
B+1
|
Wrong
|
B+2.4
|
|
UNH Tracking
|
New
Hampshire
|
K+1.4
|
K+1
|
Right
|
B+0.4
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
New
Hampshire
|
K+1.4
|
K+1
|
Right
|
B+0.4
|
|
Research 2000
|
New
Hampshire
|
K+1.4
|
K+3
|
Right
|
K+1.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
25%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zogby
|
Michigan
|
K+3.1
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+2.9
|
|
Survey USA
|
Michigan
|
K+3.1
|
K+3
|
Right
|
B+0.1
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Michigan
|
K+3.1
|
K+2
|
Right
|
B+1.1
|
|
Rasmussen
|
Michigan
|
K+3.1
|
K+4
|
Right
|
K+0.9
|
|
Detroit News
|
Michigan
|
K+3.1
|
K+2
|
Right
|
B+1.1
|
|
Research 2000
|
Michigan
|
K+3.1
|
K+4
|
Right
|
K+0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey USA
|
Missouri
|
B+7.4
|
B+5
|
Right
|
K+2.4
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Missouri
|
B+7.4
|
B+5
|
Right
|
K+2.4
|
|
KC Star
|
Missouri
|
B+7.4
|
B+4
|
Right
|
K+3.4
|
|
Research 2000
|
Missouri
|
B+7.4
|
B+3
|
Right
|
K+4.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Nevada
|
B+2.6
|
B+8
|
Right
|
B+5.4
|
|
Zogby
|
Nevada
|
B+2.6
|
B+5
|
Right
|
B+2.4
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Nevada
|
B+2.6
|
B+6
|
Right
|
B+3.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Colorado
|
B+7.1
|
B+3
|
Right
|
K+4.1
|
|
Zogby
|
Colorado
|
B+7.1
|
B+2
|
Right
|
K+5.1
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Colorado
|
B+7.1
|
B+7
|
Right
|
K+0.1
|
|
Rocky
Mnt News
|
Colorado
|
B+7.1
|
B+9
|
Right
|
B+1.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Maine
|
K+7.1
|
K+8
|
Right
|
K+0.9
|
|
Zogby
|
Maine
|
K+7.1
|
K+11
|
Right
|
K+3.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
West
Virginia
|
B+12.9
|
B+8
|
Right
|
K+4.9
|
|
Zogby
|
West
Virginia
|
B+12.9
|
B+9
|
Right
|
K+3.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mason-Dixon
|
Oregon
|
K+5.1
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+0.9
|
|
Survey
USA
|
Oregon
|
K+5.1
|
K+3
|
Right
|
B+2.1
|
|
Oregonian
|
Oregon
|
K+5.1
|
K+6
|
Right
|
K+0.9
|
|
American
Research Group
|
Oregon
|
K+5.1
|
K+4
|
Right
|
B+1.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
0%
WRONG
|
|
See the above table sorted by Pollster
Comments? Email me at crwillis@androidworld.com
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